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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Parma edge out Bologna 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Parma beat Bologna 0-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.06 xG and Parma 1.08 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Parma attack 0.80 / defence 1.06, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 34% | Draw 30% | Parma 35%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Parma 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Parma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Parma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights