Bologna vs Lecce – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Lecce travel to to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at : 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lecce have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Bologna have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
Bologna hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 0 for Lecce, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with Bologna winning.
The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lecce trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Lecce 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Lecce 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.43 xG and Lecce 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.857 / defence 1.040 | Lecce attack 0.861 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.469. Data: 49 Bologna games / 49 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 40% | Draw 26% | Lecce 35%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Lecce 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Lecce 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 40% | Draw 26% | Lecce 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Bologna 1.43 / Lecce 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.857 / def 1.040 | Lecce attack 0.861 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Bologna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lecce xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lecce kick off?
Bologna vs Lecce is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Lecce part of?
Bologna vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 40% chance of winning, Lecce a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bologna and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 6W | Draws 3 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Bologna and Lecce in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Lecce (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.91
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.74
1.31
Lecce xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bologna and 1.31 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 21W 10D 18L from 49 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 27L across 49 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 7W 3D 14L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.82 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lecce in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 21W 10D 18L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Lecce have gone 13W 9D 27L in their last 49 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lecce away?
Bologna's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.12 PPG; Lecce away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bologna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
From 9 meetings on record, Bologna have won 6, Lecce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Lecce 1-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lecce?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 42%, Lecce 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 38% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Bologna have failed to score in 38% of games; Lecce in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bologna's recent matches and 38% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 38% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lecce tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Lecce in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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