🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lecce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Lecce 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.90 xG and Lecce 1.06 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lecce landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.73 / defence 1.17 against Lecce attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 30% | Draw 31% | Lecce 39%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lecce's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights