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Shock result as Juventus defy the odds to beat Bologna 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Bologna 0-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.36 xG and Juventus 0.93 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Juventus attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 47% | Draw 28% | Juventus 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Juventus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Juventus 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Juventus's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.67 PPG, Juventus 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights