Bologna 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Juventus meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juventus have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bologna's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Juventus's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bologna, 2 for Juventus and 6 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Juventus — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Juventus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Juventus 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.36 xG and Juventus 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.120 / defence 0.930 | Juventus attack 0.898 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.113. Data: 52 Bologna games / 52 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 28% | Juventus 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Juventus 3.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Juventus lead the H2H ledger, but Bologna carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 50% | Juventus 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 47% | Draw 28% | Juventus 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Bologna 1.36 / Juventus 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.120 / def 0.930 | Juventus attack 0.898 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Bologna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Juventus xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Juventus kick off?
Bologna vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Bologna 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Bologna vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Juventus part of?
Bologna vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 47% chance of winning, Juventus a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bologna and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
Record (8 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 6 | Juventus 2W.
What form are Bologna and Juventus in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Juventus (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.12) and Juventus's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.90x) against Bologna's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.62
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.29
0.93
Juventus xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Bologna and 0.93 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 23W 18D 11L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 24W 21D 7L from 52 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Bologna against 1.79 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (14W 8D 3L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 8W 11D 6L from 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.46 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Juventus in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 23W 18D 11L in their last 52 games (1.67 PPG), while Juventus have gone 24W 21D 7L in their last 52 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Juventus away?
Bologna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.00 PPG; Juventus away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Bologna or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Juventus in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bologna
6
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 0, Juventus have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 56%, Juventus 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bologna) and 36% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Bologna's games and 60% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bologna's recent games and 36% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Juventus tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Juventus in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventus defy the odds to beat Bologna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Bologna 0-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.36 xG and Juventus 0.93 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bologna fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Juventus attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 47% | Draw 28% | Juventus 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Juventus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Juventus 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.67 PPG, Juventus 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.