Bologna vs Inter – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Inter at in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna at this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inter — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inter away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bologna, 4 for Inter and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Inter in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 44% versus Inter 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 44% | Inter 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.01 xG and Inter 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.937 / defence 1.055 | Inter attack 1.158 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.323. Data: 41 Bologna games / 41 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 24% | Draw 25% | Inter 52%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Inter 1.92. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 30% | Inter 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 24% | Draw 25% | Inter 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Bologna 1.01 / Inter 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.937 / def 1.055 | Inter attack 1.158 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Inter (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Inter xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Inter kick off?
Bologna vs Inter is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026.
What competition is Bologna vs Inter part of?
Bologna vs Inter is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 24% chance of winning, Inter a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bologna and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
Record (10 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 3 | Inter 4W.
What form are Bologna and Inter in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Inter (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.94) and Inter's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
24%
4.24
25%
4.03
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.62
1.62
Inter xG
4.24
24%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
5%
21.37
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bologna and 1.62 for Inter, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 16W 9D 16L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter's form line: 30W 6D 5L from 41 games, 2.34 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
On the road, Inter have gone 14W 3D 3L from 20 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.37 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Inter in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Inter have gone 30W 6D 5L in their last 41 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.00 PPG; Inter away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Bologna or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Inter in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Inter have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 35%, Inter 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bologna) and 45% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 55%; Bologna have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Bologna's recent matches and 40% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bologna's recent games and 45% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Inter tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Inter in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.