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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Inter 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Inter 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.49 xG and Inter 1.41 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inter landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.45 / defence 0.89 against Inter attack 1.39 / defence 0.83, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 38% | Draw 28% | Inter 34%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Inter 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Inter's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.79. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights