Bologna 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Monday 13 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Serie A outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Serie A outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 2.00 in Bologna's favour (2.00 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.59 xG and Hellas Verona 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.089 / defence 1.257 | Hellas Verona attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.433. Data: 2 Bologna games / 2 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 40% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 37%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Hellas Verona 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 40% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Bologna 1.59 / Hellas Verona 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.089 / def 1.257 | Hellas Verona attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Bologna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Hellas Verona xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Bologna vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Bologna 1 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Bologna vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Hellas Verona part of?
Bologna vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 40% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Bologna and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Hellas Verona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Hellas Verona in?
Bologna (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.09x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.85x) against Bologna's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 2/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
40%
2.53
24%
4.21
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.13
1.53
Hellas Verona xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Bologna and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Bologna and 1.53 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 1D 0L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.00 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.50 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 100%.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Hellas Verona
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Bologna or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Hellas Verona have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Bologna's games and 100% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Bologna's matches and 100% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Bologna and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.59 xG and Hellas Verona 1.53 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.09 / defence 1.26 against Hellas Verona attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 40% | Draw 24% | Hellas Verona 37%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Hellas Verona 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Bologna conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.