Atalanta 1-2 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Atalanta welcome Fiorentina to Gewiss Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.29 xG and Fiorentina 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.769 / defence 0.979 | Fiorentina attack 0.800 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.478. Atalanta's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Atalanta games / 2 Fiorentina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 40% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 33%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 40% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Atalanta 1.29 / Fiorentina 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.769 / def 0.979 | Fiorentina attack 0.800 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Fiorentina xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Fiorentina kick off?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Atalanta 1 - 2 Fiorentina.
Where is Atalanta vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Fiorentina part of?
Atalanta vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 40% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atalanta and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in?
Atalanta (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Fiorentina's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.67
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.45
1.16
Fiorentina xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.02
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.16 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fiorentina heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 100%.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Atalanta or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Atalanta's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Atalanta's games and 100% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Atalanta's matches and 100% of Fiorentina's.
Do Atalanta and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fiorentina defy the odds to beat Atalanta 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Atalanta 1-2 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.29 xG and Fiorentina 1.16 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fiorentina outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.77 / defence 0.98 against Fiorentina attack 0.80 / defence 1.32, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 40% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 33%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Fiorentina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 50%, Fiorentina 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Fiorentina winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atalanta shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fiorentina conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.