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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Bologna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona beat Bologna 1-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.35 xG and Hellas Verona 0.83 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Hellas Verona attack 0.68 / defence 1.44, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 49% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 23%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Hellas Verona 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights