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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Bologna 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona beat Bologna 2-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.72 xG and Hellas Verona 0.77 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.98 / defence 0.64 against Hellas Verona attack 0.91 / defence 1.30, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 60% | Draw 23% | Hellas Verona 16%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 44%, Hellas Verona 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights