🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.94 xG and Fiorentina 1.10 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.00 / defence 0.70 against Fiorentina attack 1.19 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 31% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 39%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, Fiorentina 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fiorentina's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.73 PPG, Fiorentina 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights