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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Como 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Como 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.36 xG and Como 1.19 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Como landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Como attack 1.04 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 38% | Draw 31% | Como 31%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Como 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Como's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.59 PPG, Como 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights