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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Como.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Como 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.73 xG and Como 0.93 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Como landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.12 / defence 0.94 against Como attack 0.74 / defence 1.15, drawn from 59/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 54% | Draw 28% | Como 18%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Como 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Como's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bologna 1.73 PPG, Como 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights