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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Cagliari 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bologna beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.72 xG and Cagliari 0.97 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.27 / defence 0.97 against Cagliari attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bologna 54% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 20%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bologna's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Cagliari's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights