Bologna vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Bologna welcome AS Roma to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 2W 4D 4L at — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Bologna's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Bologna, 3 for AS Roma and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus AS Roma 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | AS Roma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.22 xG and AS Roma 2.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.856 / defence 1.028 | AS Roma attack 1.456 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.502. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.456 — the away xG of 2.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Bologna games / 48 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 20% | Draw 20% | AS Roma 61%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | AS Roma 1.64. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | AS Roma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 20% | Draw 20% | AS Roma 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 63% | xG Bologna 1.22 / AS Roma 2.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.856 / def 1.028 | AS Roma attack 1.456 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
2.25
AS Roma xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs AS Roma kick off?
Bologna vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 December 2026.
What competition is Bologna vs AS Roma part of?
Bologna vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 20% chance of winning, AS Roma a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bologna and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
Record (10 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 3 | AS Roma 3W.
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bologna's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 2.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
20%
5.06
20%
5.09
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Bologna xG
Total xG
3.47
2.25
AS Roma xG
5.06
20%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
11%
9.48
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
2%
47.99
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bologna and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Bologna and 2.25 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs AS Roma?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna's recent record stands at 20W 10D 18L from 48 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 30W 7D 11L across 48 games — 2.02 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 13W 3D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.81 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 30W 7D 11L in their last 48 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.12 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Bologna or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AS Roma in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, AS Roma have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and AS Roma?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 42%, AS Roma 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 46% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 42%; Bologna have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bologna's recent matches and 42% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 46% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and AS Roma tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.