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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atalanta and Udinese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta and Udinese finished level at 2-2 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.88 xG and Udinese 0.87 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.23 / defence 0.79 against Udinese attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 61% | Draw 22% | Udinese 17%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 48%, Udinese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Udinese's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights