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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atalanta and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta and Torino finished level at 1-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.01 xG and Torino 1.32 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.50 / defence 1.09 against Torino attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 52% | Draw 25% | Torino 23%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 65%, Torino 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Torino's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights