Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (69%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Atalanta face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atalanta welcome Hellas Verona to New Balance Arena in Serie A (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Atalanta — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hellas Verona's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Atalanta have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Atalanta: 6 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Hellas Verona, with 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Atalanta 1–3 Hellas Verona — a Hellas Verona win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Atalanta and goals — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 52% versus Hellas Verona 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 48% | Hellas Verona 54%). Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Atalanta recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.16 xG and Hellas Verona 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.210 / defence 0.869 | Hellas Verona attack 0.764 / defence 1.396. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.194. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.396 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atalanta's projected output up. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Atalanta's last 67 games and Hellas Verona's last 67.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 69% | Draw 19% | Hellas Verona 12%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.45 | Draw 5.33 | Hellas Verona 8.06. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (69%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 40% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, matchday 30 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 69% | Draw 19% | Hellas Verona 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Atalanta 2.16 / Hellas Verona 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.210 / def 0.869 | Hellas Verona attack 0.764 / def 1.396 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Hellas Verona xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Atalanta vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Atalanta 1 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Hellas Verona part of?
Atalanta vs Hellas Verona is a Serie A fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 69% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Atalanta and Hellas Verona will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Atalanta vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.40x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 67 games and Hellas Verona's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.33
12%
8.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.96
0.79
Hellas Verona xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
8.06
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
11%
8.70
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
1%
70.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.79 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 34W 19D 14L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Hellas Verona's form line: 13W 16D 38L from 67 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.99 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 34 home games (17W 10D 7L).
On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 8W 7D 19L from their last 34 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.84 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Hellas Verona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 34W 19D 14L in their last 67 games (1.81 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 13W 16D 38L in their last 67 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Hellas Verona away?
Atalanta's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.79 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won Atalanta 6-1 Hellas Verona.
Atalanta's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Atalanta
1
Draws
2
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 7, Hellas Verona have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Hellas Verona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Hellas Verona?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 62%, Hellas Verona 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Atalanta) and 50% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Hellas Verona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Atalanta's recent matches and 47% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Atalanta's recent games and 50% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Hellas Verona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Atalanta's recent matches and 65% of Hellas Verona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.16 xG and Hellas Verona 0.79 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Hellas Verona attack 0.76 / defence 1.40, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 69% | Draw 19% | Hellas Verona 12%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 48%, Hellas Verona 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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