Atalanta 5-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Genoa meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atalanta have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Gewiss Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Atalanta, 0 for Genoa and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 4–1 with Atalanta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Genoa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 68% | Genoa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.74 xG and Genoa 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.269 / defence 1.263 | Genoa attack 0.837 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.257. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.74 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Atalanta games / 44 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 70% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Atalanta 1.74 / Genoa 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.269 / def 1.263 | Genoa attack 0.837 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Genoa xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Genoa kick off?
Atalanta vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Atalanta 5 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Atalanta vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Genoa part of?
Atalanta vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 44% chance of winning, Genoa a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Atalanta and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
Record (4 meetings): Atalanta 2W | Draws 2 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in?
Atalanta (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.84x) against Atalanta's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.43
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.07
1.33
Genoa xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
5%
21.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.33 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 23W 7D 14L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa's form line: 13W 15D 16L from 44 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 2.10 PPG from 21 outings (14W 2D 5L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 5W 7D 9L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.11 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Genoa in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 23W 7D 14L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Genoa have gone 13W 15D 16L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Genoa away?
Atalanta's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.10 PPG; Genoa away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Genoa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 5-1 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Atalanta
3
Draws
0
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 5, Genoa have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Genoa?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 52%, Genoa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Atalanta) and 38% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Atalanta's recent matches and 52% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Atalanta's recent games and 38% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Genoa tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Genoa in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Genoa 5-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.74 xG and Genoa 1.33 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.27 / defence 1.26 against Genoa attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 68%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.