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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fiorentina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat Fiorentina 2-0 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.32 xG and Fiorentina 1.05 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fiorentina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Fiorentina attack 0.87 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 41% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 50%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fiorentina's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.74 PPG, Fiorentina 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights