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Poisson rates Atalanta at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Fiorentina encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Atalanta welcome Fiorentina to New Balance Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Atalanta's home record at New Balance Arena: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Fiorentina — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fiorentina's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Atalanta register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Fiorentina in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Fiorentina, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Atalanta.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Fiorentina winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Atalanta trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Fiorentina trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Fiorentina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 50% | Fiorentina 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.32 xG and Fiorentina 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.961 / defence 1.068 | Fiorentina attack 0.871 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.134. Data: 50 Atalanta games / 50 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 28%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

Fiorentina lead the H2H ledger, but Atalanta carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Atalanta 70% | Fiorentina 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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