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Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Cagliari 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat Cagliari 2-1 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.23 xG and Cagliari 0.98 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Cagliari attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 42% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 29%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 50%, Cagliari 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Cagliari's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights