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Shock result as Atalanta defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat AS Roma 1-0 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.00 xG and AS Roma 1.02 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against AS Roma attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 34% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 35%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 49%, AS Roma 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

AS Roma's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.75 PPG, AS Roma 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights