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Shock result as Atalanta defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat AS Roma 2-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 0.93 xG and AS Roma 0.99 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.78, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atalanta 32% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 35%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 59%, AS Roma 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atalanta's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

AS Roma's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.88 PPG, AS Roma 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights