🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Udinese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Udinese 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.40 xG and Udinese 0.91 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Udinese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against Udinese attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 46% | Draw 31% | Udinese 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 35%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Udinese's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights