AS Roma vs Torino – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 7 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Torino (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in AS Roma's favour (2.40 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, AS Roma are the stronger side on paper — 7 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2026, ended 2–0 with AS Roma winning.
The historical record gives AS Roma a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 38% versus Torino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 44% | Torino 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.93 xG and Torino 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.391 / defence 0.823 | Torino attack 0.889 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — their λ of 1.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 AS Roma games / 48 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 22% | Torino 21%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Torino 4.76. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 40% | Torino 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 57% | Draw 22% | Torino 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG AS Roma 1.93 / Torino 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.391 / def 0.823 | Torino attack 0.889 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Torino xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Torino kick off?
AS Roma vs Torino is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Torino part of?
AS Roma vs Torino is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 57% chance of winning, Torino a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AS Roma and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
Record (10 meetings): AS Roma 7W | Draws 2 | Torino 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Torino in?
AS Roma (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Torino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.89x) against AS Roma's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
57%
1.77
22%
4.54
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.03
1.10
Torino xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
3%
32.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.10 for Torino, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Torino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, AS Roma have picked up 2.02 PPG on a 30W 7D 11L record — D-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 16W 10D 22L from 48 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.29 PPG from 24 outings (17W 4D 3L).
On the road, Torino have gone 6W 6D 12L from 24 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.21 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Torino in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 30W 7D 11L in their last 48 games (2.02 PPG), while Torino have gone 16W 10D 22L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Torino away?
AS Roma's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.29 PPG; Torino away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Torino in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-3 on 20 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Torino 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Torino?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 33%, Torino 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AS Roma) and 58% (Torino).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Torino in 33%; Torino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AS Roma's recent matches and 42% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AS Roma's recent games and 58% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Torino tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Torino in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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