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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sassuolo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Sassuolo 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.37 xG and Sassuolo 0.86 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sassuolo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.11 / defence 0.71 against Sassuolo attack 1.02 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 49% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 35%, Sassuolo 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sassuolo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.84 PPG, Sassuolo 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights