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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Parma 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Parma 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.00 xG and Parma 0.55 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.87 / defence 0.79 against Parma attack 0.66 / defence 0.96, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 44% | Draw 38% | Parma 18%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 48% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 35%, Parma 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Parma's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights