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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Parma.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Parma 5-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.81 xG and Parma 1.16 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Parma landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.17 / defence 0.96 against Parma attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 53% | Draw 23% | Parma 24%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 56%, Parma 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Parma's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.46 PPG, Parma 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights