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Shock result as Napoli defy the odds to beat AS Roma 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat AS Roma 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.16 xG and Napoli 0.79 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.04 / defence 0.75 against Napoli attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 43% | Draw 34% | Napoli 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Napoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 36%, Napoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Napoli's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.92 PPG, Napoli 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights