AS Roma vs Monza – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Monza meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Monza have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Monza have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AS Roma's 2.60 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Monza's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours AS Roma, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Monza — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 4–0 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Monza — key trading statistics (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 33% versus Monza 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Monza 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.69 xG and Monza 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.314 / defence 0.774 | Monza attack 0.880 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 2.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 AS Roma games / 6 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 76% | Draw 14% | Monza 9%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | Monza 11.11. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 40% | Monza 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 76% | Draw 14% | Monza 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 53% | xG AS Roma 2.69 / Monza 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.314 / def 0.774 | Monza attack 0.880 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Monza xG
53%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Monza kick off?
AS Roma vs Monza is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Monza part of?
AS Roma vs Monza is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 76% chance of winning, Monza a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Roma and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Monza?
Record (6 meetings): AS Roma 4W | Draws 2 | Monza 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Monza in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Monza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.31) and Monza's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.88x) against AS Roma's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 45/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
76%
1.31
14%
6.95
9%
10.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.54
0.84
Monza xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.95
14%
Draw
10.83
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
7%
14.76
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
1%
159.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.84 for Monza, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, AS Roma have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 28W 6D 11L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza's form line: 24W 11D 10L from 45 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for AS Roma against 1.84 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.26 PPG from 23 outings (16W 4D 3L).
On the road, Monza have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.62 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; Monza in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Monza in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 28W 6D 11L in their last 45 games (2.00 PPG), while Monza have gone 24W 11D 10L in their last 45 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Monza away?
AS Roma's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.26 PPG; Monza away: 1.48 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Monza in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-0 on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Monza?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 30%, Monza 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (AS Roma) and 52% (Monza).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Monza in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of AS Roma's recent matches and 56% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of AS Roma's recent games and 52% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Monza tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Monza in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.