🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Monza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Monza 4-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 2.53 xG and Monza 0.83 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.36 / defence 0.84 against Monza attack 0.80 / defence 1.40, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 73% | Draw 18% | Monza 9%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 54%, Monza 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Monza's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights