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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Lecce 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Lecce 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.66 xG and Lecce 0.75 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.29 / defence 0.79 against Lecce attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 59% | Draw 24% | Lecce 17%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 37%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Lecce's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights