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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Roma and Juventus share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 27, as AS Roma and Juventus drew 3-3 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.42 xG and Juventus 0.87 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juventus outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.22 / defence 0.62 against Juventus attack 1.20 / defence 0.94, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 50% | Draw 27% | Juventus 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 34%, Juventus 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Juventus's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.86 PPG, Juventus 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights