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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hellas Verona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.38 xG and Hellas Verona 0.80 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.93 / defence 0.85 against Hellas Verona attack 0.82 / defence 1.25, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 50% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 21%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 36%, Hellas Verona 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights