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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.76 xG and Hellas Verona 0.83 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.33 / defence 0.82 against Hellas Verona attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 58% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 16%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 51%, Hellas Verona 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights