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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Genoa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Genoa 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.56 xG and Genoa 0.84 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.40 / defence 0.82 against Genoa attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 53% | Draw 28% | Genoa 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 55%, Genoa 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Genoa's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.50 PPG, Genoa 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights