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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Fiorentina 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.62 xG and Fiorentina 1.01 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.32 / defence 0.79 against Fiorentina attack 1.14 / defence 1.05, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 51% | Draw 26% | Fiorentina 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Fiorentina's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.71 PPG, Fiorentina 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights