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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 35

Kick-off

Sun 4 May 2025

17:00

Venue

Stadio Olimpico

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

AS Roma Win

51%

AS Roma

1.95

26%

Draw

3.92

23%

Fiorentina

4.31

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.7%

Home win

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.62

AS Roma xG

Total xG

2.63

1.01

Fiorentina xG

51%
26%
23%
AS RomaDrawFiorentina

1.95

51%

Home win

3.92

26%

Draw

4.31

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.95

49%

BTTS No

2.05

Clean Sheet

37%

AS Roma

2.74

20%

Fiorentina

5.05

Win to Nil

19%

AS Roma

5.34

5%

Fiorentina

21.76

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2 7.3 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 11.7 11.8 5.9 2.0 0.5 0.1
2 9.5 9.6 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 5.1 5.2 2.6 0.9 0.2
4 2.1 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.619
λ Away (xG) 1.007
Total xG 2.626
League avg home goals 1.167
League avg away goals 1.122
AS Roma attack strength 1.318
AS Roma defence strength 0.790
Fiorentina attack strength 1.137
Fiorentina defence strength 1.053
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 72 / 72