🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Cagliari 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Cagliari 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.94 xG and Cagliari 0.84 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cagliari landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.43 / defence 0.82 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 62% | Draw 24% | Cagliari 14%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 54%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cagliari's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights