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Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Bologna 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat Bologna 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.50 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bologna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against Bologna attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 48% | Draw 28% | Bologna 24%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 40%, Bologna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bologna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.82 PPG, Bologna 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights