AS Roma 1-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Bologna at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AS Roma haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bologna haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Bologna have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, AS Roma have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bologna have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for AS Roma.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Bologna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bologna in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 47% versus Bologna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Bologna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.50 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.154 / defence 0.870 | Bologna attack 0.970 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.185. Data: 38 AS Roma games / 38 Bologna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 28% | Bologna 24%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 4.17. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Bologna lead the H2H ledger, but AS Roma carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 50% | Bologna 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 28% | Bologna 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG AS Roma 1.50 / Bologna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.154 / def 0.870 | Bologna attack 0.970 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Bologna xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Bologna kick off?
AS Roma vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 23 August 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Bologna.
Where is AS Roma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Bologna part of?
AS Roma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 48% chance of winning, Bologna a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AS Roma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
Record (8 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 3 | Bologna 4W.
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.15) and Bologna's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
48%
2.09
28%
3.62
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
Bologna xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.00 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 38 games, going 20W 9D 9L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. AS Roma haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.63 PPG from 38 outings (16W 14D 8L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. Bologna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.82 PPG, Bologna on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 13W 2D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.50 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Pre-Season
Bologna
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 games (1.82 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 14D 8L in their last 38 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Bologna away?
AS Roma's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.16 PPG; Bologna away: 1.32 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bologna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
AS Roma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AS Roma
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 47%, Bologna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (AS Roma) and 58% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of AS Roma's recent matches and 53% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of AS Roma's matches and 58% of Bologna's.
Do AS Roma and Bologna tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bologna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Bologna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Bologna 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.50 xG and Bologna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bologna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.15 / defence 0.87 against Bologna attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 48% | Draw 28% | Bologna 24%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 40%, Bologna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.82 PPG, Bologna 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.