AS Roma vs Atalanta – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AS Roma at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Atalanta meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 7W 3D 0L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AS Roma's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Atalanta's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Atalanta, who have claimed 6 wins from 10 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Atalanta have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 32% versus Atalanta 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AS Roma 40% | Atalanta 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.71 xG and Atalanta 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.455 / defence 0.738 | Atalanta attack 1.074 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 AS Roma games / 40 Atalanta games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 55% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 22%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Atalanta 4.55. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Atalanta lead the H2H ledger, but AS Roma carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 30% | Atalanta 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 55% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG AS Roma 1.71 / Atalanta 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.455 / def 0.738 | Atalanta attack 1.074 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Atalanta xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Atalanta kick off?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Atalanta part of?
AS Roma vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 55% chance of winning, Atalanta a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both AS Roma and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Record (10 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 2 | Atalanta 6W.
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.46) and Atalanta's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.07x) against AS Roma's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.18
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.68
0.98
Atalanta xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
4%
25.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.98 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 25W 4D 11L from 40 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 9L across 40 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for AS Roma against 1.62 for Atalanta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 13W 3D 3L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 6W 8D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.35 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Atalanta in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Atalanta
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Atalanta in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 17W 14D 9L in their last 40 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Atalanta away?
AS Roma's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.21 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.37 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Atalanta in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 1-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
2
Draws
6
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Atalanta have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 26%, Atalanta 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AS Roma) and 37% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Atalanta in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of AS Roma's recent matches and 63% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AS Roma's recent games and 37% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Atalanta tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.