Udinese vs Lazio – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lazio at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 3 as Udinese welcome Lazio to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli. Kick-off is set for Monday 7 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 3W 2D 5L at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Lazio have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 1.50 PPG versus Lazio's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Udinese's 20% and Lazio's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Udinese have won 2, Lazio 2, with 6 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Udinese trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Lazio trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 15% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 48% versus Lazio 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Udinese 45% | Lazio 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 0.90 xG and Lazio 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.942 / defence 0.892 | Lazio attack 0.910 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Udinese games / 40 Lazio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 32% | Lazio 37%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Lazio 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 20% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Monday 7 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 31% | Draw 32% | Lazio 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Udinese 0.90 / Lazio 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.942 / def 0.892 | Lazio attack 0.910 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Lazio (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lazio xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Lazio kick off?
Udinese vs Lazio is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Monday 7 September 2026 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
Where is Udinese vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Lazio part of?
Udinese vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 31% chance of winning, Lazio a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Udinese and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
Record (10 meetings): Udinese 2W | Draws 6 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Udinese and Lazio in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.94) and Lazio's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
31%
3.18
32%
3.15
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Udinese xG
Total xG
1.90
1.00
Lazio xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
15%
6.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.0 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Udinese and 1.00 for Lazio, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese's recent record stands at 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 12L across 40 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.35 PPG, Lazio on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Udinese have managed 6W 6D 8L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 7W 6D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.08 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio in 28%.
Defensively: Lazio in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Lazio in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Lazio have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.20 PPG; Lazio away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Udinese or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lazio in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Udinese's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
6
Draws
2
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Lazio have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Lazio 3-3 Udinese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Udinese 40% BTTS, Lazio 15%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Udinese and 15% for Lazio.
On the defensive side: Lazio in 50%; Udinese have failed to score in 35% of games; Lazio in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Udinese's recent matches and 15% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Udinese's recent games and 15% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Lazio tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lazio in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.