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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AC Milan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AS Roma beat AC Milan 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.49 xG and AC Milan 1.12 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.23 / defence 0.72 against AC Milan attack 1.36 / defence 1.00, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AS Roma 45% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 28%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, AC Milan 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AS Roma's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

AC Milan's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.70 PPG, AC Milan 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights