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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Milan and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 19, as AC Milan and Genoa drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.94 xG and Genoa 1.19 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AC Milan fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.26 / defence 0.87 against Genoa attack 1.15 / defence 1.33, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 55% | Draw 22% | Genoa 23%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 58%, Genoa 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Genoa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights