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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat AC Milan 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat AC Milan 1-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.50 xG and Cremonese 0.94 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Cremonese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 49% | Draw 28% | Cremonese 23%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 60%, Cremonese 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Cremonese's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Milan 1.66 PPG, Cremonese 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. AC Milan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights