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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Milan and Cagliari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 20, as AC Milan and Cagliari drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.54 xG and Cagliari 0.81 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.03 / defence 0.70 against Cagliari attack 0.88 / defence 1.16, drawn from 55/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Milan 53% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 18%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 64%, Cagliari 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Milan's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Cagliari's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights