AC Milan 2-4 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AC Milan (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AC Milan face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Milan host Bologna at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AC Milan have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, AC Milan have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza this season.
Bologna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, AC Milan have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
AC Milan hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Bologna, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with AC Milan winning.
The historical record gives AC Milan a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AC Milan in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 50% versus Bologna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 46% | Bologna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.39 xG and Bologna 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.227 / defence 0.892 | Bologna attack 0.922 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.449. Bologna's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 AC Milan games / 46 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Milan 41% | Draw 26% | Bologna 32%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Bologna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Milan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: AC Milan 40% | Bologna 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 41% | Draw 26% | Bologna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG AC Milan 1.39 / Bologna 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.227 / def 0.892 | Bologna attack 0.922 / def 0.757 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Bologna xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs Bologna kick off?
AC Milan vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
AC Milan 2 - 4 Bologna.
Where is AC Milan vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is AC Milan vs Bologna part of?
AC Milan vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 41% chance of winning, Bologna a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AC Milan and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
Record (9 meetings): AC Milan 5W | Draws 3 | Bologna 1W.
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in?
AC Milan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AC Milan's attack rating (1.23) and Bologna's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AC Milan's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.79
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.58
1.19
Bologna xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
8%
12.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AC Milan and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for AC Milan and 1.19 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Milan's recent record stands at 25W 13D 8L from 46 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 18L across 46 games — 1.39 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bologna heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AC Milan have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 12W 4D 6L across 22 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.39 PPG overall record — Bologna travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Milan are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.24 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and Bologna in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 25W 13D 8L in their last 46 games (1.91 PPG), while Bologna have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or Bologna away?
AC Milan's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 1.86 PPG; Bologna away: 1.82 PPG.
Have AC Milan or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bologna in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 28 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Milan's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AC Milan
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 5, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2026, when AC Milan 2-4 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and Bologna?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 50%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AC Milan) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AC Milan's recent matches and 54% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AC Milan's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and Bologna tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bologna in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over AC Milan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat AC Milan 2-4 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Milan 1.39 xG and Bologna 1.19 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Milan attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Bologna attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Milan 41% | Draw 26% | Bologna 32%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Milan 46%, Bologna 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Milan's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Milan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.